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Raw T-Numbers are sitting at 3.7 which is pretty impressive for a Tropical Depression. The 'eye-like feature' is midlevel, which is why the raw T numbers are probably overstating TD-7's actual pressure and intensity. All in all I would be shocked if the HH's didn't find both a closed system and winds over 50MPH. I can't see any reason to quibble with the NHC's forecast path, and they aren't afraid to admit in the discussion that their confidence is rather low on this one (particularly in the day 4 and 5 forecast). So, it may trend left, and it looks like the initial direction of the possible center seems closer to 300 than 315. (but we all know the caveat about trying to judge motion based on relatively short satellite loops...) Either way, someone's going to get a lot of rain and wind. |