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I'm intrigued by TUTT to the NW, which will inhibit its movement in that direction - short term - and probably why it's forecast track is shifting west at this time. Gustav is still pretty compact and I'm not sure that previously noted eyewall is uniform through all layers. We've seen some of these tropical storms and minimal hurricanes get torn up by upper levels, and eventually the low-level circulation gets exposed and weakens. As NHC rightly noted, there is great uncertainty in the long term at this point, and very interesting to note that GFS/UK models seemingly weaken Gustav. |