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Yes, you're right! Here's part of the 5am discussion: THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS MORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE. As we all learned with FAY, timing is everything. What, where and when with Gustav will depend on the atmospheric conditions around him as he moves...and hopefully, maybe that west movement will pan out. At this point, everyone along the entire Gulf Coast needs to be watching and paying attention..especially with the upcoming holiday weekend coming up. |