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Early indications are that by the start of next week, Eight may actually get shoved to the west-southwest in response to the strengthening ridge. The Greater Antilles, Bahamas and Florida could all be in play again by the middle of next week, and perhaps sooner. With the large-scale atmospheric conditions that support tropical cyclogenesis and strengthening continuing to come together right on cue for entering what is now the climatological peak of what has already been a well-above average season so far, it has probably become somewhat reasonable to entertain even the more bullish model runs, and there has been no shortage of bullishness on both Gustav and now TD Eight. We'll likely get recon inside Eight soon, and then have some actual stats to compare those model runs against. |