the north atlantic looks like it will be fairly lit up over the next few days.. and not just with those eastern/central atlantic fish storms that usually tend to be what make up the simultaneous activity. gustav is still down in the caribbean, grazing along the southern side of jamaica tonight. it keeps staying south and west of the forecast track, as land interactions keep muddling its movements, and keeping it from going into one of those sustained rapid deepening phases. still plenty of time for that. it should clear the island by early tomorrow and ought to be swelling into a scary strong hurricane as we go into the weekend. wouldn't be surprised if it completes an eyewall cycle before reaching the yucatan channel area. my idea on the storm isn't a whole lot different than the nhc, just thinking a tad to the west of their path. that's maybe more consoling to the new orleans crowd... katrina put the fear into them. i reckon the nhc landfall forecast intensity is as good as anything we can go by. the storm will be mature, have probably completed an eyewall cycle or two.. and rounding the ridge periphery, probably moving out of its ideal environment. a bottom end category 3 or high end 2 seems like the most statistically likely strength for any landfall.. the big ones are usually weakening as the come in. of course, if it catches a second or third wind as it's nearing landfall, totally different story.. but the odds don't seem to favor that. gustav may be slowing down and bending left as some models are indicating, as it comes in around tuesday, september 2nd.
hanna is a whole different can of worms.. nowhere near as straightforward as gustav. the storm is wrestling with a stuck upper low, likely winning. its convection snapped off earlier; tonight it's firing some more. the storm track should take it into the diffluent/anticyclonic flow on the north flank of the upper low tomorrow... at least sustain it if not allow it to strengthen some. pretty much the whole model camp out there is taking it wnw to nw, getting it stuck under the same ridge gustav will orbit.. then forcing it sw slowly, or taking it west. the nhc track slows it about midway between bermuda and the bahamas, nudges it west... that's a compromise. i'd bet they're low on intensity, and i think the sw movement shown on some of the globals is greatly exaggerated--i.e. don't think it will hug cuba or go through the florida straits. it's way too far out to start guessing on which section of the southeast coast will be threatened, though it looks like most signs are pointing to, you guessed it, florida. model spread won't get things right until more of them start seeing gustav as a gulf hurricane, not the weak tropical storm the gfs has. don't want to buy into anything that much yet; still no guarantee it won't find a way to slip northeast past bermuda or just stall for half a week off the east coast.
not sure why the nhc put 96L up. not sure why it got a medium rating on development chances, either. the wave/low near 20/45 is more impressive by far, a large but still largely dry system. it should continue to trudge wnw... if it develops look for it to sneak up through the break in the ridge... an offering while hanna stays low and comes west. i'd put the odds of development a tad higher than the nhc does. the emerging wave is probably rated right. the models have been seeing it the way they saw bertha. one of these two systems should have developed by the end of the month. fyi most of the globals also keep the emerging wave on a low-west track. not encouraging, but early. the next two weeks are going to be harrowing.
HF 0149z29august