Do me a favor and pull up the 850, 700, 500 (29/00Z not avbl), 300 and 200 mb height/temp with winds and height changes from NWS FTP Fax. Do a manual analysis of the contours and streamlines and you will note as does the watervapor loop the extension of the longwave trough over the Eastern US. You will note there is a clear break in the upper ridge with one center over TX and the other over FL, but no longer is there a ridge axis, but in fact a trough axis NE to SW oriented in the GOM. Whatever you're looking at over 19.5N and 97W is at best very shallow and the environment would be hostiale for development as per CIMMS Wind Shear Analysis that indicates 20 to 30 knot winds from the NW, only over land do the winds decrease to 10 knots.