The latest NHC forecast track looks about the same as before, though the most recent model guidance has nudged a little to the east, with many of the models indicating very little deviation from the current bearing before landfall. That would be bad news, but whether or not that is a trend remains to be seen. At this point, small changes in the bearing of the storm will make a big difference on the number of people potentially in the direct path of the storm. Stay tuned, as if anyone needs to be reminded of that.

Intensity-wise, it is hard to say what will happen, though the odds favor additional intensification at least over the southern Gulf. Outflow has been somewhat restricted on the southern side of the storm, but that seems to have improved during the day. Once it gets closer to the Gulf Coast, past history strongly suggests it will come down at least a little from peak intensity, but there is a good chance of a major hurricane at landfall.