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Strongly suspect that, much like Friday morning, Infrared is once again.. playing tricks.. on the eye. Radar still indicates just one very circular, very singular eyewal still pretty much intact. Being that Gustav is much more of a classic hurricane than the weirdness witnessed with Fay, there was some filling during the trek across Cuba, as the hurricane was cut off from the very warm waters it had grown quite accustomed to. IR is truly the Houdini of all weather tools. We will have a more definitive answer to the question as to whether or not IR is actually tipping off an ERC or not soon, as recon should start to get back in there by the top of the hour. Radar out of Cuba does indicate that there isn't much precip falling in the bottom half of the cyclone, and that there could be a hint of a break in the southern portion of the eyewall. This will probably change once Gustav has spent 10-20 more hours in the Gulf. After that, there is some increased potential for shear to begin shoving in a little bit more dry air again. |