Quote:
They learned a lot 3 years ago. And he's trying hard not to make the same mistakes.
It appears that the New Governor, Bobby Jindal is on top of things too.
As soon as NHC came out with a faster forward speed. Jindal moved up the time for ContraFlow to go into effect. It was 6 AM CDT, it now begins at 4 AM CDT and runs until at least Midnight Sunday Night.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
Gustav appears to be in an Eyewall Replacement Cycle- ERC. As the Eye has disappeared from IR satellite imagery. If this is actually occuring Gustav would beginn to shrink the outer eyewall at approximately the same time that the storm is over the Loop Current. This could get very interesting. But remember. A storm can only hold a Cat 4 or Cat 5 level for so long. ERC usually takes place within 24-36 hours.
Katrina was appeared to be starting an ERC when she made landfall on the SE Louisiana Coast. ERC and dry air entrainment contributed to a weakened Katrina at 1st Landfall.
For those that still own an AM radio. You can get up to the minute information from WWL-AM 870 on your radio. They should be receivable in most of the SE U.S.~danielw
There is no eye-wall replacement on-going at this hour. This does not typically take place for hurricanes in a disruptive phase of development. In fact, the current eye is in the process of redefining, after being temporarily disrupted by passing over the narrow land strip of western Cuba. I would not be surprised if we see a defined and circular eye with good clarity prior to even dawn on today (Sunday). If there is going to be an IR, it will probably happen during or just post passage over the huge heat content of the Loop Current. That is because the nearest outer rain bands will become hugely intense, and effectively choke off the inward flux to the core, such that an eye widens and the winds weaken. This [actually] may be the best case scenario for a Mississippi Delta landfall, because once hurricanes get into IR's, they don't tend to get "as strong" as they were during initial ramp up. Nevertheless, this doesn't look good... I have some trepidation at this our that Gustav may arrive in the northern Gulf slightly east of the current track guidance cluster, then "hook" west... That would be fantastically bad. In 1938, Narragansett Bay in RI took on a funneling of storm surge and that narrowing similar geography caused a nearly 30' foot rise in water levels. Here, we have those tuck waters on the northern side of the Delta; I really hope this either passes well enough west, or east, to spare a similar channeling of surge waters. As is modeled? Just about exactly wrong.
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Re: Nagin in NOLA