Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 31 2008 10:43 AM
Re: Basic rules reminder

Latest vortex recon only found 76kt surface winds. That's category 1. The system looks poor on satellite, with most of the convection east and southeast of the center. Between the WV and IR loops, it looks to be having a real problem firing up any sort of convection in the NE quadrant Not sure why this is - perhaps a met could help?

If the system is going to grow, it has to reorganize in the next six hours while still near the loop current. Otherwise, the cool eddies will impede future growth.

Edit: And just as I post this, the last frame of IR and Water Vapor indicate the eye is reforming with convection in all quadrants. Also, convection firing north of the storm now, and starting to wrap south.

Edit 2: Appears NHC is using data outside the vortex recon and has issued their 11am forcast advisory with 120mph initial winds. I'm guessing they are seeing winds in quadrants not crossed by the aircraft.



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