Ok Gustav looks on track towards the Lake Charles area BUT NOLA will get at least a min hurricane out of this as it will come within 50miles of NOLA + on top of that NOLA will be on the eastern side of Gustav. Heavy rains, tornados, flooding...just a mess. Any deviation to the right will bring the Cat 2 + winds to NOLA. I hope everyone from Biloxi,Ms-all of LA coastline is prepared or will be by sunset as this makes landfall Monday late in the day or later that night.

With Hanna, I have a beef with the NHC and I usually dont go against my fellow friends there , but what are they looking at? First off, the center isn't where they have it @ 23.3N and 70W, The center is @ 24N and 70.7W. That is a big difference really! The intensity is correct, but also some of the reasoning just isnt there. First off a weaker system will follow the Ukmets solution (as they did note but didnt say why) while a stronger system will go along more with the GFS and GFDL and stall her as she gets traped between ridges and axis trough digging down from the north. Right now the trough axis is progressing ever so slightly slower than the 0z and 6z runs have showed and Hanna is a weaker system and will probably go with the LLF towards the SE Bahama chain (ala Ukmet-CMC-Lbar) and I hate to use them models but in this case, they could be right on. Now if Hanna does somehow get SW and strengthens into a strong TS by later tonight, then it be interesting on where this happens and what are the varibles of the ridges, gustav prox, upper trough axis strength and postion to her N + more.

Right now I cant make a forecast on Hanna until Monday afternoon, and will do so in the Hanna forecast lounge, but I want to see what evolves today into tonight, and lets get the 1st thing straight, and thats the location of the center near 24N and 70.7W moving W@10mph and will start moving WSW later today into tonight!

scottsvb