Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 01 2008 03:58 PM
Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward

There is very little evidence that Hanna is going to take a more westward route than forecast. Almost all the models are clustering between a north Florida to South Carolina landfall, with a few outliers.

See:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008.png
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al082008_late.png

Also, per hanna, latest recon pass found 983mb central pressure (no vortex recon; purely HDOBs) and a max surface wind of between 75 and 77kts. If this slow strengthening continues (about 1-2mb drop per hour), it will hit category 2 (80 kt / ~979mb) sometime late this afternoon or early this evening.

Recon (the previous run) reported a very broad pressure and wind center. As she spins up, this will condense. Will be interesting to watch. Models only call for cat 1 to cat 2 max.

Edit: Vortex Recon finally came in. About what I said, plus: "GREATLY IMPROVED RADAR BANDING IN CENTER"

--RC



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