Hanna has been generating remarkably intense and persistent convection today, in the face of strong northerly shear. The shear may actually be helping to generate and maintain the deep convection, much like wind shear can do in the mid-latitudes. However, the shear also results in an inefficient intensification process. Hanna has been strengthening, but only because of the top-of-the-scale intense convection it has been generating. If that convection flares out while Hanna is still in the strong shear environment, which is certainly possible, it would rapidly weaken. It looks like the environment could become more favorable after about 36-48 hours, but there is wide range of possibilities as to how strong Hanna will be at that point.

Hanna's motion will likely be somewhat erratic for awhile, strongly influenced by internal processes related to the intense convection it is currently generating. There is still pretty good agreement on an eventual northwest track, though.

Ike looks like it will be a player down the road, but lots of things can happen between now and when it would become a threat to the U.S.