Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 02 2008 03:33 AM
Re: Please help me make sense of Hanna

Hanna has been pushed to the south quite a bit. It´s to the east of Great Iniagua (the island nearby) and so it´s quite much south of the NHC forecast track. Convection increases after a minimum again. The minimum could had been caused because of the slow movement and upwellung of cold water. If I look at the sat pics, I would say, there is still some shear, but also a poleward outflow channel forming!? I think, this storm could give us some more surprises in the future.
Near the Cap Verde islands TD 10 has formed. That isn´t a surprise and it could intensify to TS Josephine today. It looks very healthy. So we could have four named storms in the evening: the dying Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine. May be the next days we see three hurricanes at the same time with Hanna, Ike and Josephine. So it´s really quite busy! By the way, what´s the record for TS/ hurricanes at the same time?

edit: I see, the shear takes it´s toll according to the last AMSRE pass. The center is to the north and not the east of the island, with the mass of convection well to the southeast of the center.



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