Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 02 2008 11:50 PM
Re: Question on 5pm track

Quote:

If you play connect the dots, the 72 hour position is off of Jacksonville and then the 96 hour position is in Virginia. If you draw a straight line from one to the other, the storm stays off shore until it impacts Charleston..this is a Northward track (almost NNE).
Am I correct in my thinking that actually the storm will not move straight (point to point) but more of a curved path that may bring the storm into Georgia as it moves through Friday night into Saturday????

All of this is of course based on current forecasting which we all know can vary greatly over three days.

Thanks




It is likely that there will be a little bit of curvature to the track that a straight line simply cannot account for, but not a large amount. But -- don't focus on the track line itself! Track errors in the 72-84 hr time frame are over a couple of hundred of miles. All of the eastern seaboard is well within the cone of error with Hanna's forecast track and that is what everyone should focus upon. Thus, prepare as though the storm will hit, even if it misses just to the east or well to the east.



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