Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 07:02 AM
Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West

Quote:

We need some METS in here!Sorry for the short post but where the heck are the METS?We need some input for Ike.




Truly, there's not much to be said. Hanna has started to lift out, partially in response to the steering flow at upper levels sending it that way and partially in response to the center reforming near the deep convection. As this happens, the subtropical ridge should build in ahead of Ike, steering it to the WSW in a day or two. It appears that Hanna will end up too far away to capture Ike and recurve it between the US and Bermuda, leaving open the question of where Ike goes in the next 5-7 days. It's too early to speculate about anything at those ranges given the inherent errors and uncertainties that grow at those longer time ranges, but I will note that the forecast pattern at this time does not look terribly conducive for continued westward movement beyond then. Everyone from Cuba and Hispaniola to New England need to watch Ike through the weekend -- what is seemingly certain is that we will have a major (or nearly so) hurricane on our hands threatening land masses through that time period.



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