Good Morning: The vertical shear mentioned in the 5:00 a.m. discussion concerning IKE appears in the WV as the western side of the envelope is flattening, and occasional indications of a N-S shear is visible. The direction remains WNW, and the center well established in side the core.
Clark's input from several hours ago seems to be born out so far. Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system, but by all appearances now, based on the visible evidence of its effect on the structure of IKE today, it may be pretty strong. If so, based on NHC assumptions implied in the 5:00 a. m. discussion, that would mitigate toward a more westward and southern solution. Lets hope not!