Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 04 2008 05:53 PM
Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West

Quote:

Quote:

Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system,




What is the best way to observe the high in real time? Water vapor loops? Is there a particular satellite view that would show this as it's happening? I'm growing more and more concerned about Ike, and would like to stay on top of the always-changing situation out there as much as possible.




The best tool that combines easy understanding yet comprehensive analysis of the subtropical high (and other atmospheric features) comes from the Univ. of Wisconsin and their Layer Mean Wind Analyses. Pick the appropriate one for the current/forecast storm intensity and see how it has evolved over the past 24 hours. I wouldn't use it for forecasting, though, just for analysis, as many things change on a continual basis. We need intuition and model forecasts to help us with that.



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