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Perhaps I'm seeing things, but it appears to me that Ike may be attempting a repeat of last night... when it went from an 80mph "minimal' hurricane at 5pm, to a powerful Cat 5 at 8pm, to an even more powerful Cat 4 at 11pm. The satellite presentation appears to me to be better than it was at 11pm last night, although cloud tops are cooler in the western eyewall than in other locations within the hurricane. The ragged eye from a few hours ago is once again a perfect circle. The water vapor loops shows that shear has decreased over the western eyewall and that the overall envelope of Ike has shrunk (indicating lowering pressure?). I may be wrong, but unless shear increases overnight, I still believe recon is in for a surprise tomorrow, and may well find our first Cat 5 of the season. It's a long way off, but I think a track through the peninsula is entirely possible. |