|
|
|||||||
IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT. IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED. You know the NHC is working overtime with all of these storms. The above is from the 11:00 PM Discussion and if you read it, I think you will agree it is impossible for Hanna to be over the north coast of Cuba anytime soon? |