(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:06 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Very interesting! The shear must have been relaxed quite a lot. The outflow has improved quite much and the convection is much stronger, especially in the northwestern half. The last microwave pass has revealed the surprise: Ike has formed a complete second outer wall and there is obviously the first eyewall replacement cycle starting! So at least no rapid intensification to expect in the face of the improved conditions!
And what becomes more and more obvious: Ike will make a first landfall in about 24 hours on Cuba. The question is: Will it stay close to oder over the northern coast or will it move for a long time more in the middle of Cuba. So weakening will be more or less significant, but modells also still show in any case a reintensification to a major hurricane in the Gulf. Conditions should be quite good for this.

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