(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 03:21 AM
Re: Drops

Good comment on priorities. The GOM is in play for the end game but for the short term it has to tangle with Cuba it seems. Personally I think it might move along the north coast and not as far inland as there has been less and less a southward component and a few bobbles of the eye that looked like it wants to pull just enough north of west sooner rather than later and spare the length and breath of the island. However, with cat 4 storms the eye wobbles, it breathes sort of and the shape changes and what can look like a wobble wnw could only be the eye blinking or a part of an eye wall replacement cycle.

The last several frames look like just south of due west.


Longer loops look WSW


I agree with a few people that said a slow down over Cuba could cause a sharper turn into the GOM later. Hadn't thought that much on it but yes that makes sense.

So speed, forward speed not just wind speed will make all the difference.

Key West is VERY far west, which may sound redundant but needs repeating so it has a long ways to go before it gets closer and so it's harder to tell where it will be that far down the cone.

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