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The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.
The NHC was right on on their long term forecast for Gus,But they also had it missing Jamaica,and it went over the top of Jamaica.Point is,just a little wooble north and all bets are off.
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Re: Drops