MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 07 2008 09:03 PM
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical

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The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.




It would make a big difference to S Florida.LOL.This is going to be an all nighter.




No reason, there is almost no chance the center of Ike can directly affect south Florida (not including the western Keys). The storm is moving west at 14MPH. There is a bit of dryness on the southwest side of the storm along with an eyewall replacement cycle attempting to get going, this makes in more vulnerable to negative factors... Thus the land interaction that will probably take a lot of the punch out of Ike when it gets over Cuba,... and unfortunately it will tear up parts of Cuba as it moves westward.

Ike is on the NHC track, and still moving due west and wobbling both north and south of due west. It looks like it'll be dead on for the next 8-12 hours or so.

Florida is going to miss the worst of it, (Keys will see some effects as it will get pretty close), but the cone at large is off of Florida for good reason I think. Points west, Louisiana or Texas are still the most likely, but there is a good way to go to determine that. Mexico isn't out of the question either if Ike goes further west than forecast (it has a better chance of that then heading more north early). I think points east will still want to watch closely until Ike clears Cuba, but it's by no means something to lose sleep over in Florida.



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