GFS 0Z run up to 120hrs is alittle east (50-100 miles) from the 18z run. After that, it takes IKE northeast towards a landfall next Sunday around Mobile Al-Pensacola Fl. First off (like I always preach) anything more than even 3 days out is not even a 50% chance it will come true, and after 5 days its less than 25%. The reason its slightly east in the near term is cause its alittle slower with a slightly weaker midlevel-ridging and a faster flow across the continental U.S. The longer range shows a stronger front than the 18z and also the cold front further east.
Like I said earlier today, I suspect IKE to slow down due to the first trough swinging by and missing him in a day or 2. This will create a weakness in the ridge and he may meander (like Hanna) until the next trough (as shown in the 0z run) picks him up. Question is How Fast Will The Trough Come Down? How Strong Will The Trough Be? and Finally, Where is IKE Located When He Hits The Weakness? 88W? 86W? The 3 Questions for the Extended Range, but first lets focus on the nowcast as model runs change, but focus mainly on the GFDL and GFS!