MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

VALID SEP 08/0000 UTC THRU SEP 11/1200 UTC

IKE...
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH IKE OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS...THOUGH MOST OF THE TREND HAS BEEN SINCE ITS 07/12Z RUN.
SINCE ITS 12Z RUN...IT HAS SLOWED IKES FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH VARIATION SEEN OVER ITS
PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...DUE TO CHANGES IN SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
IKE...
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH IKES
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE WELL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SEEN IN THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM 12Z...THEY LIE AT THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING SEEN IN THEIR SURFACE LOW
POSITIONS. WHILE THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE FOR A RECURVING
TROPICAL CYCLONE /WORKING OUT WELL FOR GUSTAVS INLAND TRACK AND
HANNA ONCE IT FINALLY MOVED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/...IT HAS NOT BEEN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FORECASTING IKE AS
IT HAS MAINTAINED A MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAN ANTICIPATED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SPREAD. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS ON IKE FROM NHC FOR ITS FUTURE TRACK.