(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 08 2008 04:27 AM
Re: Wind Speeds and Category

At this time all my feelings are with the cuban people, which suffer Ike´s fury. This is a horrible catatrophe for this country, which effects nearly all of the country. Don´t want to be come overly political, but I certainly don´t like the attitude of the US government to not lift the embargo for some time for some help in the face of this catastrophe.
I know the home of this forum is in Florida in the US and all your concerns are of course for the coming US landfall of Ike. Sometimes I have a bit of a feeling, as Cuba is seen as a kind of impersonal obstacle in the way of Ike, which has the positive effect of weakening Ike and making him less dangerous for a later US landfall. If this would be the case, I would wish, that you can feel, that there are people like you on Cuba, which suffer like you would be in the face of such a catastrophe.

Now to the meteorological situation: Cuban radar shows Ike continue to move to the west. Only around 6 hours longer of this west track and Ike`s core would be over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. So very small deviations can have a lot of impact.
Latest GFS/GFDL/HWRF model runs are a bit frightening conerning the later US landfall. All three slow Ike down around day 5 at a bit differnet points with a N/NE turn. The GFS does it already a bit before the coast , the strormfield already effecting the coastline and this for a very long time and then turning it NE to Alabama or so. Ike is till over the Gulf at +168 h. The GFDL slows it down a bit later around the landfall in the middle of Louisiana around +126 h. The HWRF is the most horrible for New Orleans. It also slows down Ike just before the coast of Louisiana. It´s still over water at +126 and you see with the last frame, that it turns NNE, which would mean, that IKe would move directly over New Orleans later on.
This isn´t the point to worry too much about the US landfall, because modell shifts are still huge and the whole of the northern US gulf coast is under the gun.

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