Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 08 2008 11:58 AM
Re: Wind Speeds and Category

5am NHC discussion mentioned that the eyewall was disrupted. Based on Cuban radar, it looks like the eyewall was open on the SE quadrant.

Since that time, the eyewall looks to have closed and reformed...over land. Both Microwave imagery and Cuban radar show this.

Cuban radar: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif
Microwave imagery: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/AT...N-766W.57pc.jpg

Additionally IR (via SSD) satellite shows the convective cloud tops re-encircling the eye area.

From everything I can see, Ike is doing everything it can to fight off the effects of land.

It's current track, per IR, looks to take it offshore south of Cuba for a short period of time before recrossing Cuba. Ike is also forming up a new convective band well out in front (east) of the main convective cover. This has become distinctly evident on the last couple IR frames. The storm appears to be growing in size as it's core is weakened.

This could become very interesting. Wonder how long it will keep fighting to keep it's core intact. Still has another day overland...unless it manages to escape N or S for a short while.

Edit: Just going to point out the latest GFDL (0600Z), just available in the last 10 minutes, shows Ike with it's eye partially to completely offshore south of Cuba for most of it's traverse of tie island before recrossing about where Gustov did. Looks very close to the track I am seeing on IR.



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