Hurricane Frederic in 1979 weakened to a depression after leaving Cuba.....and slammed into Mobile as a cat 3....strong cat 3...

if Ike maintains a cat 1 intensity...once it reaches the gulf...there will be plenty of time for it to ramp up. Since small deviations in the direction now extrapolate to huge distances five days out...look for the "cone" to continually change. The models are in agreement...which makes me somewhat agreeable to the NHC's forecast. However, as I recall, Hurricane Katrina was supposed to slam into Texas...Houston....remember?
it went much East. they tend to go more north..as they get more north...the polar coriolis effect?

Can the high pressure ridges that are in place cause the hurricane to slow it's forward speed? I would look at that too.

no one is out of the woods, from Texas...to the Florida Panhandle...and even the keys...

imho