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just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.
It's still too early to say with certainty that Ike will be a Texas storm. Certainly current models point that way, as does the official forecast... but... Ike appears to have already made its second landfall over Cuba, just a few hours after moving offshore. It's too early to determine if this is a wobble or a definitive change in motion, of course, but it appears that Ike is a considerable distance north of the forecast track.
Edit: Local (WALA FOX 10 in Mobile) weather just said "we could be getting some rain from Ike later in the week"... if Ike were certain to move to Texas, Mobile would not get rain, would it?
I tend to trust the NHC and hurricane forecast models rather than local weather stations. Every local station on the gulf I'm sure has said "we may see rain etc due to ike". Also its not impossible that you will see rain. Bands from the storm could effect a large area as it passes to your south, toward Texas.
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Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?