Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 09 2008 11:30 PM
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW?

Look at the raw Dvorak numbers out of CMISS! Up to 5.7 with the 3-hour average still only 3.9, which matches the recorded wind speeds. Once the winds catch up to this strengthening, 5.7 indicates that it should become a strong Cat 3.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt09L.html

This is a storm I would definitely keep a close eye on, considering it is still over that cooler pool of water in the gulf, and won't reach the loop current until sometime tomorrow.

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Recon HDOB: >50kt surface winds over more than 110mi radius. The plane hasn't found their edge yet in the northern quadrant, and it's about 110mi from the eye. Further, except for one or two HDOB points, it never drops under 50kts that entire distance!

Edit: Recon found the edge of 50kt surface winds at about 120 miles out!

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Also, look at the spin on that storm! The radius of that convective spiral (the north/south convective ring outside the core) is about 100 miles out. That's about 620 miles circumference, and it has rotated 180 degrees in 4.5 hours. That is a rotational speed of 60 kts or 70mph!



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