Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Thu Sep 11 2008 12:04 PM
Re: Galveston Bay surge impact

I saw that.

I was thinking one might be a typo, but a 4nm eye won't expand to an 8 nm eye unless the storm is doing some really weird dynamics (technically an eye can grow in size, but it requires time and generally a weakening storm; these reccos were too close together to indicate anything like that).

My guess is that the 4nm eye has dissipated and a 3rd, larger eyewall has since formed. I wonder if the first vortex might have better read something like 4nm, 12nm, and 40-some nm as a triple eyewall, since in an hour an eyewall won't just form, but the vortex recons don't allow for a triple eyewall scenario in their messages.

I'm personally thinking that with these multiple eyewalls forming is good for the development of the system (and bad for Texas). As each eyewall develops and contracts, the central pressure will fall and the winds will increase, consolidating this massive storm.

Ike has incredible energy - as evidenced by a huge swath of hurricane force winds - that it is desperately trying to organize. Eyewall cycles will help this.

I was half expecting last night that, based on Microwave, we might get a near 100nm eyewall forming, but the structure never finished closing off in the north. I suspect this same structure is what is now the 42nm eyewall, but without recent microwave data, there is no way to be sure.

Ever seen a category 2 go through eyewall cycles before? This storm is highly unusual.

--RC



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center