Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 11 2008 10:30 PM
Re: Huge Hurricane Ike in Gulf, Hurricane Warnings Issued

Unless Ike becomes much stronger than it is now, I doubt anyone inland will see 100 mph sustained winds for any length of time. The maximum sustained wind estimates are usually only valid over water and are hardly ever observed by surface-based instruments. More likely would be a prolonged period of 60-80 mph winds, which would still create plenty of damage and havoc when it comes to trees and power lines.

I am skeptical that Ike will become much stronger than it is now. It still has around 24 hours over the Gulf and outflow is improving, but Ike's inner organization is a mess (compared to typical hurricanes) and large storms with poorly defined inner cores usually struggle to intensify.

Ike is still a huge threat even if it does not intensify. Even if it does not produce catastrophic damage in any one area, it is likely to at least produce significant damage over an unusually large area. I don't think anyone knows exactly what to expect from the storm surge out of a storm like this, but it could be pretty bad.



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