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BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY-
BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT
HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS
WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A
WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS.

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

CHAMBERS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.

HARRIS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:

HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET
PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET
FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET
PORT O'CONNOR - 3.6 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE
AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE
HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD
PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.