| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 12 2008 09:17 PM |
|
Re: Surge
|
Now in addition to reforming an eyewall and tightening up, pressures have resumed falling. At 110MPH, there is more than enough time left for Ike to go Cat 3 - perhaps even mid-range Cat 3, prior to, or going in to landfall. An argument could be made that high-end 3 is not entirely out of the question. Given the very healthy upper-level pattern in the northwest quadrant that has replaced the shear and dry air, strengthening up to and into landfall is a pretty good bet. But whatever Saffir-Simpson number Ike officially makes landfall at, a 15-25 foot water rise/surge, along and a bit east of the eye, is already baked in the cake.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 01:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 0:46:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°21'N 94°14'W (28.35N 94.2333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 74 miles (119 km) to the SSE (151°) from Galveston, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,703m (8,868ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 35° at 89kts (From the NE at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.11 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the east (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40° to 220° (NE to SW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:36:00Z