AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1217 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

.UPDATE...DISTURBED WEATHER AFFECTING THE NE CARIB REGION THE PAST
24 HOURS OR SO AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SW TO NE AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
AND OVAL IN SHAPE... WITH STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS INVOF 17N 66.3W.

THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED SSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... BUT WITH
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NOW SUGGESTING A MORE NE MOTION AND
ELONGATION OF THE RAINBANDS THAT WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THIS
APPARENT LOW.
TUTT LOW TO THE NNW OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIFTING SLOWLY NW AND ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO RELAX... AND BANDING ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUS
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ON ITS WAY TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON
STLT SIGNALS AND DOPPLER WINDS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT THE HURRICANE RECON FLIGHT FINDS 35 KNOT WINDS AT 5-8K FT
BETWEEN SE PUERTO RICO AND ST CROIX. REGARDLESS OF WIND
STRENGTH... THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE E AND SE SECTIONS OF PR AND FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT N FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THIS ELONGATED
TROUGHING REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE... AND MID
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING INTO SE CARIB UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH OR LOW MAY THEN LINGER ACROSS THE ATLC WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY... AND COULD
PROLONG THIS RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THUS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sorry about the length... lots of info.~danielw