LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 23 2008 12:58 PM
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version

"Right now there is very little real estate for this storm to find a favorable upper air environment. "

IF that is true and it probably is... he will drift west, move slowly west or wnw until things improve. I think he is close to losing his ticket out of town. The old models had him way north of where he was supposed to be moving very slowly into the Bahamas and towards his path between Florida and the Bahamas with his date with the Noreaster.

Garbage in..garbage out.

Think the NHC is going to have to deal with what is..and that appears to me the storm wrapping around the old mid-level center which was furthest to the south.

It could pull north but its going to be much further to the west than expected.

We don't always get what we expect from the models in the tropical prediction.



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