Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Thu Sep 25 2008 01:17 PM
Re: definitions

It´s time for at least TD 11 or even TS Kyle instead of 93 L. The system gets better defined around the core. There is also enough of a LLC at the western side of the convection and recon found recently SFMR surface winds up to 39 kt. The strom is sheared and also has to fight with dryer air from the west. I expect, that NHC starts warnings on this one with the next update.
Another important thing about extratropical/tropical storm is, that the extratropical are cold in the core and the tropical are warm in the core. Warm waters below a extratropical system and undisturbed circumstnces help extratropical systems to transition to a tropical system. This needs time, usually 2-3 days, somtimes a bit faster. The conditions for 94 L to transition into a (sub)tropical system aren´t this good, because, it´s running out of time and has to fight with very dry air around the center. But as said in th NHC warnings, it doesn´t matter much, because it´s a powerful storm in any case.



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