Sat Oct 11 2008 02:42 PM
Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic May Develop Today

"97L" has sort of been made up of one fairly large circulation and a smaller swirl running out ahead of it. The lack of sufficient organization has probably been partially held in check, in part, by the close proximity of these two. It does now appear that the larger circulation center is beginning to show more definitive signs of development, and has been trending on a mostly northwest course, while the smaller swirl, still remaining a distinct feature, pushes farther westward.

NHC is tracking the mean center of the much larger circulation as the center of "97L." As of this reply, I peg it near 13.8N 36W. The trend over the past few hours might be a bit more westerly, but the movement the past few days has been stair-stepping, when smoothed out.

The small swirl southwest of 97L is now just shy of reaching 10N 43W. This feature appears to be weakening at the moment, mostly above the surface, and looks to be battling gust fronts which have been circulating off the fringes of the much larger 97L.

As a practical matter, as 97L develops further, it could continue to pull yet more north of the much smaller circulation, allowing both a better chance, with the small swirl continuing further west. But until then, the small swirl could be snuffed out at any time from an encounter with the outflow boundaries mentioned above. Also, these outflow boundaries suggest that 97L is still trying to work off an abundance of SAL in the region, even though bountiful moisture exists in the middle and upper layers.

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