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97L has maintained a very well-organized surface low for at least 12 hours now. Upper level winds continue to fan convection, displacing it to within the eastern half of the cyclone. Given 97L's tenacity, it is possible, if not likely, that maximum sustained winds at the surface are already blowing at or above 35 knots. Upper-level winds are not expected to improve any time soon. In fact, they may even become more hostile in the near-term. There is a chance that deeper convection can maintain closer to the coc long enough to begin the process of deflecting some of this westerly shear. Unfortunately for this cyclone, it is still stair-stepping its way to the northwest, and with every westerly jog (as has been the case the past few hours) it encounters more westerly shear as it travels into and against the prevailing winds in the mid to upper-levels. All discounts aside, NHC may begin issuing advisories on a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time today, for a sheared, but otherwise well-developed, tropical cyclone. |