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Any development of 91L will likely be non-tropical in nature. Wind shear will be too strong across the eastern GOM to permit tropical development, but a weak baroclinic low pressure system looks like a good bet. Here is part of the forecast discussion from the NWS Tampa/Ruskin earlier today: .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...MODELS BEGINNING TO COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GULF SYSTEM TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP UPPER LOW FROM S PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS RV VALLEY WITH SW FLOW OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATE OVERHEAD IN UPPER FLOW. WEAK BAROCLINIC/NON TROPICAL/COLD CORE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM IN S GULF ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NNE WARD. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THU NT THEN NORTH HALF FRI WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THU NT-FRI AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS AS WE GET MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO. AROUND 1012MB LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE PUSHED OVER THE AREA FRI NT INTO SAT WITH POTENT VORT MAX. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. |