The slowly organizing disturbance in the western Caribbean is closer than ever to becoming a tropical depression. Over the course of the last 72 hours, this broad area of low pressure has become better organized, with progressively more favorable upper-level winds aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures below. Pressures have now been falling a bit over the most recent 24 hours, and winds continue picking up.

All indications are that Invest 93L has a better-than-average chance of becoming our next named tropical cyclone. Steering currents favor a track to the east-northeast to northeast, and it could impact Florida and/or, as well as many of the islands to its east-northeast, whether or not a tropical storm forms.

Should Invest 93L develop into a tropical cyclone that tracks to the ENE to NE, upper-level winds could conspire with the steering flow to induce quite a bit of exhaust, and this cyclone could have a very good chance of intensifying rapidly at one point or another, not at all unlike Omar of just last month.