MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 08 2010 11:00 AM |
Tropical Depression Two Landfall at South Padre Island
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12 Noon EDT 8 July 2010 Update
Tropical Depression Two never became a storm, and may have fallen back to open wave state, but officially it made landfall at 10:30 CDT (11:30PM EDT) this morning. It accelerated this morning and made it's a approach about 6 hours earlier than expected.
Landfall was over South Padre Island.
It is bringing more rain to South Texas, but is otherwise fairly tame.
Outside of this there is nothing on track for development this weekend.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Two has actually weakened overnight, but the National Hurricane Center is still tracking it. The expected landfall time is around 5 PM CDT This evening.
Again the main threat is just rainfall. Hurricane Alex went through Northern Mexico last week causing flooding in many areas, so this aspect of it is not welcome. Other than that though, it's not much. The threat of tornadoes isn't very high from this system either.
It is forecast to become a storm before landfall, but there is a good chance it will never make it. The center of circulation lost a lot of convection overnight, it may reform some of it today, but it'll be borderline if it makes it to Tropical Storm status. Actually the upwelling from Alex last week may be one of the reasons it does not make it to Tropical Storm status.
After this system, there's an outside chance (very very low) that the system east of the Carolinas, but the best chance is that it brings rainfall to the northeast later in the week as a non-tropical system.
Beyond that there is a wave off Africa that probably won't become anything because of the Saharan Air Layer (Sal) dust concentration that will likely slow any development.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 08 2010 03:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today
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Shortest thread ever...
Tropical Depression TWO has made landfall just south of South Padre Island per the 11 AM EDT Advisory.
Life span of 12 hours. But the rains from this storm will add to the rains last week from Hurricane Alex.
The Rio Grande at Laredo is beyond Flood Stage.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=crp&gage=ldot2&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6
Flood Stage at Laredo is 8 feet. The river ws at 38.08 feet this morning.
Historical Crests
(1) 62.48 ft on 01/01/1965
(2) 61.35 ft on 06/30/1954
(3) 38.98 ft on 06/30/1971
(4) 35.02 ft on 08/27/1998
(5) 33.14 ft on 07/01/1971
(6) 32.05 ft on 07/21/1975
(7) 31.63 ft on 10/06/1971
(8) 27.66 ft on 09/27/1974
(9) 21.23 ft on 06/05/1979
(10) 20.34 ft on 07/19/1976
Total so far 7 Invests, 2 TDs ( 95L wasn't classed ) and 1 hurricane.Entering Week 8 of the season, so that's about one per week
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010
...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.
SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 08 2010 03:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today
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Earlier in the week we had what some thought a small TS hit La. and today we have a TD hitting Mexico and it appears weaker than some waves we track.
June and early July have been very interesting. A notable hurricane (for the month), a no name system, and a TD with little weather have combined to make for a busy 2 weeks of hurricane tracking.
Let's hope things get quiet and that shear and African dust rule the rest of the month.
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 08 2010 04:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today
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Yep, on a lighter note is anyone else noticing that the low off the coast of the Carolinas has appeared to make it to the surface? While it is still enveloped within the ULL it is spinning pretty good and kicking up some TS cells in recent images. Floater has also been changed to watch it.
Floater
BG
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 09 2010 11:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today
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Looks as though the low off the eastern seaboard is retrograding. A couple of other features out there bear watching. Upper level low @ 25n 56w. A nice blow up of convection just east of the Leewards. Albeit a little far south, the wave @ 7n 40w was looking quite vigorous last night. It's just enough to keep me watching. Have a great weekend everyone.
| Troy C |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jul 11 2010 07:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Two to Make Landfall Today
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Latest wave off Africa looks the 'best' yet this year.
| Jasonch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 01:58 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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Is there any potential storms in the upcoming weeks.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 02:28 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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No it's about as quiet as it can be for July. Things can change relatively quickly, but with the Saharan Air Layer (dust) from Africa as strong as it is right now July seems to be headed to mostly quiet.
At least for this week. Things may get going again at the end of this month into August, but for now enjoy the lack of activity.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 04:10 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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It looks like the SAL is retrograding north. There was that big 'puff' but it seems to be weaker now. The wave that came off recently has retained more of its convection that most which looked good then fizzled when over water. This wave also looks like it has a nice moisture envelope around it as well. I think it waited just long enough to let the SAL get ahead of it. There is another impressive wave behind it at a relatively higher latitude. We shall see if that holds together as well. Just a note as to how busy the season is...in 2005 we had already had Dennis and Emily (which was a Cat5 at one point), so its hardly the busiest start we've seen. That said things can ramp up quickly
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 04:10 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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If you look in the wunderground forums, people are already declaring a slow season, it's funny actually. The fact we already had a Hurricane with a high ACE shows we are in for an above normal season. People seem to forget that it is only July. They shouldn't just look at 2005 and say this is a slow season, seems to be the problem these days. I'm expecting activity to ramp up in about a week or two.
| cumeteo |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 08:27 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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Quote:
If you look in the wunderground forums, people are already declaring a slow season, it's funny actually. The fact we already had a Hurricane with a high ACE shows we are in for an above normal season. People seem to forget that it is only July. They shouldn't just look at 2005 and say this is a slow season, seems to be the problem these days. I'm expecting activity to ramp up in about a week or two.
Gosh, I hope people don't get into that line of thinking. Look at the 2004 season. That year's first named storm (also Alex) formed on the last day of July. But considering the burst of activity that followed, I doubt anyone would call the 2004 season a slow year.
| Jasonch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 09:26 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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I'm starting to doubt this seasons high activity as well. The reason for this is because before the season started everybody was talking about low wind shear, very moist air and of coarse warmer sea temps. Well only 1 of those ingredients have panned out. Now I know it is early yet and things could ramp up in a hurry but I just don't know at this time. If it dosen't start picking up soon I believe those numbers will start to come down.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jul 12 2010 09:58 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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I have no reason to doubt that this will be a busy year, but to expect much before August is to ignore history.
| GlenJohnson |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 13 2010 03:31 AM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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Is it true that the SAL doesn't really stop the waves, but allows the moisture to build up out in the atlantic? If so, if the moisture is siting out there waiting for SAL to go away and a wave to come in from the African coast to piggy back onto it, couldn't this just create one heck of a system? Of course, I'm just a beginner, so I don't know for sure.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 13 2010 04:02 PM |
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Re: Any potential storms in the upcoming weeks
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I think we will probably see two or three systems worth
watching before the month is over, as the CMC model
continues to pick up on a disturbance moving into the
Western Caribbean this upcoming weekend.
Also, the NAM model is depicting some type of tropical
disturbance developing in the Central Gulf of Mexico by
the weekend. Both of these solutions seem possible.
I think it is just a bit too soon to say that this year won't
be active in terms of tropical systems.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 15 2010 06:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Two Landfall at South Padre Island
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The NHC has highlighted a code yellow area (10%) out in the Atlantic
this afternoon. They say conditions will become more favorable for some
development over the next day or two. The GFS carries this wave into the
Leeward Islands by Sunday evening.
We may have something to track by this weekend.