| Tony Cristaldi |
| (NWS Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 19 2010 09:55 AM |
Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon
|
Quote:
Just wanted to briefly mention an area in the Southwest Caribbean, is has a (very) small chance of development sometime next week. If it were to it would mostly impact Hispaniola/Jamaica and head out to sea. Most likely nothing will occur since there is more to keep it from developing than not, too early in the year even with the conditions around it.
Still something to watch over time. I've added Puerto Rico to the default popups, watching their local discussions over the next few days on this potential area.
Mike,
Also of note is the baroclinic (non-tropical) low that the GFS and ECM are developing north of the GA/east of the Bahamas. A short wave is forecast to drop southward over the western Atlantic late this weekend. The latest op-GFS run shows the short wave retrograding SSW around the back side of the pre-existing western Atlantic trough, driving a back door cool front into FL, with the surface low east of the Bahamas taking off to the NE and out to sea.
The 00Z op-ECM is much, much different. It shows the second short capturing the first, creating a large cutoff near 32N 75W, which, in turn, captures the surface low, then retrogrades the stacked low westward into Florida. where it sits for at least 72 hours. With a solution such as this, even though SST's are in the mid-upper 70s, it wouldn't be entirely out of the question for such a low to take on some quasi-tropical, or hybrid/non-frontal characteristics, given cool temps aloft due to the cutoff at 500 MB.
Regardless of it's state, a low such as this would be a potential heavy rainfall maker for some part of northeast or east central FL. Think back to last year's late May cutoff low - different synoptic setup, but any May cutoff near/over FL invariably translates to heavy rain for someone.
FWIW...The ECM ensembles seem to favor more of a op-GFS solution.