I dont trust any models in May-June.. they are usually all over the place and form things that just dont quite make it. GFS is always gun-ho like the CMC model does all year in the carribean.. Maybe the Euro might have the best idea if anything, but still will change every 12 hrs.

For the carribean, its just a wait and see. Dont get too excited if you see the GFS,GFDL or CMC or TBH any model forecast a tropical system, cause anything more than 2 days out.. forget it!!

The system off the bahamas and the carolinas has a better chance only cause its not going to be tropical
when it gets going. But will it become subtropical or tropical in 5 days or more? Well 5 days is too far out, we
do know it will be a rain maker and gusty winds 40-50mph to the N of the center. And where will it make landfall
if any? Well its too early to say that also. This may just meander around 30dg N over the next 3-5days. Too far
out to tell if this heads SW towards Florida or E with the westerlys as the subtropical Jet heads further north to 25-30N.

All in All... just wait and see, by Monday-Tuesday we will see whats happening, but for now models change.