cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu May 27 2010 02:12 PM
Re: 2010 Season Arriving Soon, Special Tropical Weather Outlook Issued

Invest 90L is starting to get its act together a little bit today, and I would now probably give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a numbered system within the next 48 hours. Shear is moderate, as the non-tropical low is rather stacked, and what shear there is has been helping to fan the convection near and mostly just to the east of the mean center. If this process continues, it could help to moisten up the entire column over a wider area, allowing for additional convection to take hold over the next while, and giving 90L a better shot at developing something resembling a more traditional warm core.

Movement is likely to keep the system offshore at least for the near-term, assuming it just doesn't get squeezed into oblivion and/or shot out to sea.

Bermuda and boaters may also want to be watching much more closely, now. Even if 90L melds with the approaching frontal system from its north and loses what little chance it has had of transitioning into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm, odds look to favor at the least a brief increase in organization, along with some blustery gales and squalls.



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