cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 13 2010 07:38 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched

Been keeping one eye out on this wave for quite a while now. By any measure, 92L is extremely robust for the location given the time of year - and it has been traveling in a cocoon of high water vapor content and relatively low shear for the better part of its exit from Africa. While a tight low level circulation does not look to have formed - yet - 92L appears to be embodied by a modest gyre (at least for the Atlantic basin) with a few embedded eddies or maxes.

In the very near term, the current low latitude trajectory should serve to both hinder and benefit. On one hand, there isn't going to be much in the way of any significant boost from the Coriolis effect that far south, but on the other, staying under 10-15 north keeps the system traveling over higher SSTs and out of detrimental shear.

It seems reasonable to conclude that a significant window for further development is open through at least the next 24 to perhaps as many as 72 hours. After that, if 92L has not yet developed a solid inner core, either some potential interactions with land/near land effects, or a run in with increasing shear and dry air from its north/northwest, could put a stop to any further development for at least a day or few.



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