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Fixed, thanks for the mention. The wave is over some abnormally warm water, but it still lacks the convection near the "center", roughly 7.6N / 34W. The overall flow is really large. It'll probably take another day to get wrapped in enough around the center to become a real candidate for development -- but I'm not sold. One positive factor for development is it's pretty wet, no real dry air around it. The models are interesting on it, GFS is on the weak side, NOGAPs tends to be stronger. The SHIPS intensity model is a bit too much right now. Looking at water vapor imagery, It won't have that large of a window for development (see the northwestern side of the area), which is probably the strongest reason it won't develop much if at all. |