cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Jun 14 2010 04:05 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched

92L appears to have consolidated somewhat under the deeper convection of the very late overnight and this morning. Positions still carrying the cyclone at anywhere under 10N are probably quite obsolete at this point, as the center of 92L is now traveling along and/or within deeper convection, and perhaps already somewhere in the vicinity of 10.5 to 10.8 N and 40.1 to 40.5 or so W.

As of 1500 UTC, 92L now resembles in many ways many of those short-lived tropical depressions or weak tropical storms of the central Pacific. I think that it is regrettable that QS is no longer online, as this could very well perhaps by now have confirmed the existence of a primary, satisfying llc. 92L sure looks as close to "there" as I have just about ever seen. Convection is maybe still a bit wanting, but I've certainly seen worse on other systems befitting of the title.

Dr. Rick Knabb, now TWC's tropical expert (replacing Dr. Steve Lyons who has gone back to work for the NWS), was on just a little while ago opining that there is little to no shear ahead of 92L. I find that statement a bit puzzling, as it appears that 92L is already starting to feel the first bites of increased shear and a little less precipitable water, and that a zone of much higher shear and drier air exists not far to its north and northwest (up ahead), and while some models want to lift the trof imparting that shear, model shear forecasts also do not guarantee that will go away any time in the very near future - at the rate 92L is traveling interaction with this razor could easily occur before any such lifting away of the shear takes place.

Should the trof indeed pull up and allow 92L to remain coddled within its envelope of low shear and high water vapor content, the outlook for the islands later this week or next could get worrisome.



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