While it is true that the Invest area has seen a recent flareup of convection, the overall structure of the system has not shown the development necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone. The general appearance is still ragged and lacks organization. Regarding intensity, here is the latest output of the low-level model suite from NHC:

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100615 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 0000 100615 1200 100616 0000 100616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.6W 13.3N 47.1W 14.2N 49.5W
BAMD 11.3N 42.1W 12.6N 44.2W 13.8N 46.0W 14.8N 47.5W
BAMM 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.4W 13.4N 46.5W 14.2N 48.5W
LBAR 11.3N 42.1W 12.9N 44.4W 14.4N 46.8W 15.7N 49.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 0000 100618 0000 100619 0000 100620 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 51.9W 16.8N 56.8W 18.5N 61.6W 19.8N 66.3W
BAMD 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 50.9W 17.0N 53.4W 17.7N 55.3W
BAMM 14.9N 50.4W 16.2N 54.4W 17.4N 58.0W 18.4N 61.3W
LBAR 16.8N 51.2W 19.1N 54.6W 21.9N 56.9W 23.9N 59.0W
SHIP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS

These latest track forecasts would all move a very weak system to the north of the Caribbean Islands. Looking at the windshear forecast

Unisys 48hr Windshear Forecast

and the forecast points, the system has until about 17/00Z (a couple of days) to regenerate and develop before it encounters a zone of stronger windshear. It is fair to note that the zone of shear is anticipated to be on the decline in the 36 to 72 hour timeframe, and it is also fair to note that model intensity forcasts are seldom very accurate.
ED